Expert Probability Elicitation Tools
نویسنده
چکیده
of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under award number 2010-ST-061-RE0001. However, any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Department of Homeland Security, or the University of Southern California, or CREATE. Expert Probability Elicitation Tools Stephen C. Hora, University of Southern California [email protected]
منابع مشابه
Knowledge Engineering Tools for Probability Elicitation
Unwieldy probability entry interfaces are the norm for Bayesian Network knowledge engineers. This requires domain experts to provide unreasonably accurate probability estimates. To solve these problems, we have developed two applications: CPTable improves direct probability entry, and provides node customisation and sliding scale binary elicitation; Verbal Elicitor allows entry of probability v...
متن کاملDealing with the Expert Inconsistency in Probability Elicitation
ÐIn this paper, we present and discuss our experience in the task of probability elicitation from experts for the purpose of belief network construction. In our study, we applied four techniques. Three of these techniques are available from the literature, whereas the fourth one is a technique that we developed by adapting a method for the assessment of preferences to the task of probability el...
متن کاملA Web-based Tool for Expert Elicitation in Distributed Teams
We present in this paper a web-based tool developed to enable expert elicitation of the probabilities associated with a Bayesian Network. The motivation behind this tool is to enable assessment of probabilities from a distributed team of experts when face-to-face elicitation is not an option, for instance because of time and budget constraints. In addition to the ability to customize surveys, t...
متن کاملEvidence-based tool surpasses expert opinion in predicting probability of eradication of aquatic nonindigenous species.
The main objective of evidence-based management is to promote use of scientific data in the decision-making process of managers, with data either complementing or replacing expert knowledge. It is expected that this will increase the efficiency of environmental interventions. However, the relative accuracy and precision of evidence-based tools and expert knowledge has seldom been evaluated. It ...
متن کاملA comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments
BACKGROUND When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to ob...
متن کامل